Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 4716 32083 151 30 1274 1775
November 07 2020 4897 32325 157 31 1366 1840
November 08 2020 5036 32453 159 31 1380 1894
November 09 2020 5131 32627 162 31 1393 1811
November 10 2020 5223 32829 166 35 1378 1781
November 11 2020 5292 33089 169 35 1332 1761
November 12 2020 5475 33491 173 34 1380 1819
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 4.7 3.4% 47 0.41% 64 0.56%
10-19 21 19.6 13.8% 191 1.4% 253 1.86%
20-29 52 32.7 23% 317 1.51% 405 1.94%
30-39 26 21.9 16.6% 229 1.68% 307 2.26%
40-49 23 16.7 13.3% 183 1.75% 230 2.2%
50-59 22 15.1 13% 179 1.43% 236 1.88%
60-69 21 10.6 8% 111 0.96% 151 1.31%
70+ 14 10.0 8.9% 123 1.18% 173 1.65%
All ages 183 131.3 100% 1380 1.32% 1819 1.74%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 2604 19974 82 26 1023 1286
November 07 2020 2713 20102 83 29 1028 1316
November 08 2020 2753 20170 84 29 964 1356
November 09 2020 2800 20309 84 31 935 1267
November 10 2020 2984 20425 85 31 1045 1403
November 11 2020 3086 20589 86 33 1128 1401
November 12 2020 3223 20752 92 35 1190 1434
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.1 2.9% 35 0.45% 42 0.54%
10-19 14 9.1 7.1% 85 1.01% 114 1.36%
20-29 15 16.9 14.9% 177 2.49% 209 2.94%
30-39 25 22.6 19.8% 236 2.81% 279 3.32%
40-49 29 21.0 19.2% 228 2.94% 269 3.47%
50-59 19 17.7 16.5% 196 2.02% 236 2.43%
60-69 16 14.3 12.9% 153 1.82% 181 2.15%
70+ 16 8.0 6.7% 80 1.12% 104 1.46%
All ages 137 112.7 100% 1190 1.84% 1434 2.22%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 1685 13006 67 11 592 754
November 07 2020 1797 13074 70 11 665 827
November 08 2020 1861 13159 70 11 683 845
November 09 2020 1919 13205 71 11 696 857
November 10 2020 1991 13246 76 14 710 898
November 11 2020 2053 13374 80 14 733 921
November 12 2020 2128 13524 82 28 740 950
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 3.4 4.6% 34 0.63% 41 0.76%
10-19 8 8.6 11.4% 84 1.55% 103 1.9%
20-29 6 11.9 15.1% 112 2.48% 134 2.96%
30-39 9 9.9 13.8% 102 1.88% 134 2.47%
40-49 9 10.7 14.9% 110 2.21% 140 2.81%
50-59 14 11.7 15.3% 113 1.67% 148 2.18%
60-69 13 10.7 13.4% 99 1.56% 125 1.97%
70+ 11 10.6 11.6% 86 1.36% 125 1.97%
All ages 75 77.4 100% 740 1.64% 950 2.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 5174 34708 101 26 987 1190
November 07 2020 5391 34865 103 26 1135 1366
November 08 2020 5469 35062 103 26 1103 1386
November 09 2020 5535 35190 104 26 1062 1432
November 10 2020 5626 35482 105 27 1076 1439
November 11 2020 5833 35890 109 27 1225 1577
November 12 2020 6018 36351 109 28 1383 1652
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 4.1 2.7% 38 0.32% 40 0.34%
10-19 24 16.4 11.4% 158 0.95% 182 1.1%
20-29 39 29.3 20.3% 281 1.32% 342 1.61%
30-39 23 20.4 14.2% 196 1.44% 235 1.73%
40-49 30 18.1 14.3% 198 1.46% 245 1.8%
50-59 25 21.1 16.1% 223 1.57% 265 1.87%
60-69 19 18.1 12.3% 170 1.2% 200 1.41%
70+ 19 12.7 8.6% 119 0.92% 143 1.1%
All ages 185 140.4 100% 1383 1.17% 1652 1.4%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 17807 248063 590 53 3247 4252
November 07 2020 18274 249427 596 55 3345 4443
November 08 2020 18523 250330 602 55 3370 4397
November 09 2020 18797 251218 604 55 3276 4492
November 10 2020 19494 252703 625 56 3655 4934
November 11 2020 19956 253876 634 56 3945 5027
November 12 2020 20590 254788 649 57 4383 5437
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 24 25.3 5.5% 239 0.4% 307 0.51%
10-19 106 76.9 15.8% 692 0.97% 830 1.17%
20-29 141 116.6 23.8% 1043 1% 1312 1.26%
30-39 95 74.6 15.7% 688 0.9% 857 1.12%
40-49 94 64.9 14% 615 0.94% 749 1.14%
50-59 66 49.9 10.7% 469 0.71% 606 0.92%
60-69 52 28.7 6.7% 293 0.54% 373 0.68%
70+ 56 34.0 7.8% 344 0.7% 403 0.82%
All ages 634 470.7 100% 4383 0.8% 5437 0.99%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 06 2020 256065 1896457 12554 2256 49754 65587
November 07 2020 263130 1908320 12727 2301 53004 68590
November 08 2020 267410 1916801 12839 2312 52414 69244
November 09 2020 271770 1926518 12939 2329 51678 70721
November 10 2020 278843 1939444 13230 2395 53473 72532
November 11 2020 285891 1949868 13507 2457 57028 75765
November 12 2020 293388 1964779 13771 2515 61092 78392
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 288 248.4 3.9% 2384 0.37% 3013 0.47%
10-19 854 720.1 11.2% 6835 0.9% 8693 1.15%
20-29 1280 1126.1 17.9% 10916 1.44% 13923 1.84%
30-39 1192 960.6 15.7% 9568 1.26% 12298 1.62%
40-49 1132 895.3 14.8% 9013 1.29% 11543 1.65%
50-59 1115 942.7 15.4% 9433 1.16% 12273 1.51%
60-69 856 697.6 11.2% 6835 0.9% 8842 1.17%
70+ 780 618.3 10% 6108 0.95% 7808 1.22%
All ages 7497 6209.1 100% 61092 1.05% 78392 1.35%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
173.8 186 193.5 131.3 116.9 34.1%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
221.8 112.7 80.1 44.8%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
210 77.4 43.4 44.2%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
139.7 110 160.7 140.4 75 32.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
99.5 116.8 126.3 470.7 269.3 29.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
134.6 114.8 183.9 6209.1 4385.3 34.4%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 8.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2450"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red