Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| November 10 2020 | 5223 | 32829 | 166 | 35 | 1378 | 1781 |
| November 11 2020 | 5292 | 33089 | 169 | 35 | 1332 | 1761 |
| November 12 2020 | 5475 | 33491 | 173 | 34 | 1380 | 1819 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.7 | 3.4% | 47 | 0.41% | 64 | 0.56% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 19.6 | 13.8% | 191 | 1.4% | 253 | 1.86% |
| 20-29 | 52 | 32.7 | 23% | 317 | 1.51% | 405 | 1.94% |
| 30-39 | 26 | 21.9 | 16.6% | 229 | 1.68% | 307 | 2.26% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 16.7 | 13.3% | 183 | 1.75% | 230 | 2.2% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 15.1 | 13% | 179 | 1.43% | 236 | 1.88% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 10.6 | 8% | 111 | 0.96% | 151 | 1.31% |
| 70+ | 14 | 10.0 | 8.9% | 123 | 1.18% | 173 | 1.65% |
| All ages | 183 | 131.3 | 100% | 1380 | 1.32% | 1819 | 1.74% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| November 10 2020 | 2984 | 20425 | 85 | 31 | 1045 | 1403 |
| November 11 2020 | 3086 | 20589 | 86 | 33 | 1128 | 1401 |
| November 12 2020 | 3223 | 20752 | 92 | 35 | 1190 | 1434 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.1 | 2.9% | 35 | 0.45% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 9.1 | 7.1% | 85 | 1.01% | 114 | 1.36% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 16.9 | 14.9% | 177 | 2.49% | 209 | 2.94% |
| 30-39 | 25 | 22.6 | 19.8% | 236 | 2.81% | 279 | 3.32% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 21.0 | 19.2% | 228 | 2.94% | 269 | 3.47% |
| 50-59 | 19 | 17.7 | 16.5% | 196 | 2.02% | 236 | 2.43% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 14.3 | 12.9% | 153 | 1.82% | 181 | 2.15% |
| 70+ | 16 | 8.0 | 6.7% | 80 | 1.12% | 104 | 1.46% |
| All ages | 137 | 112.7 | 100% | 1190 | 1.84% | 1434 | 2.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| November 10 2020 | 1991 | 13246 | 76 | 14 | 710 | 898 |
| November 11 2020 | 2053 | 13374 | 80 | 14 | 733 | 921 |
| November 12 2020 | 2128 | 13524 | 82 | 28 | 740 | 950 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.4 | 4.6% | 34 | 0.63% | 41 | 0.76% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 8.6 | 11.4% | 84 | 1.55% | 103 | 1.9% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 11.9 | 15.1% | 112 | 2.48% | 134 | 2.96% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 9.9 | 13.8% | 102 | 1.88% | 134 | 2.47% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 10.7 | 14.9% | 110 | 2.21% | 140 | 2.81% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 11.7 | 15.3% | 113 | 1.67% | 148 | 2.18% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 10.7 | 13.4% | 99 | 1.56% | 125 | 1.97% |
| 70+ | 11 | 10.6 | 11.6% | 86 | 1.36% | 125 | 1.97% |
| All ages | 75 | 77.4 | 100% | 740 | 1.64% | 950 | 2.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| November 10 2020 | 5626 | 35482 | 105 | 27 | 1076 | 1439 |
| November 11 2020 | 5833 | 35890 | 109 | 27 | 1225 | 1577 |
| November 12 2020 | 6018 | 36351 | 109 | 28 | 1383 | 1652 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 4.1 | 2.7% | 38 | 0.32% | 40 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 24 | 16.4 | 11.4% | 158 | 0.95% | 182 | 1.1% |
| 20-29 | 39 | 29.3 | 20.3% | 281 | 1.32% | 342 | 1.61% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 20.4 | 14.2% | 196 | 1.44% | 235 | 1.73% |
| 40-49 | 30 | 18.1 | 14.3% | 198 | 1.46% | 245 | 1.8% |
| 50-59 | 25 | 21.1 | 16.1% | 223 | 1.57% | 265 | 1.87% |
| 60-69 | 19 | 18.1 | 12.3% | 170 | 1.2% | 200 | 1.41% |
| 70+ | 19 | 12.7 | 8.6% | 119 | 0.92% | 143 | 1.1% |
| All ages | 185 | 140.4 | 100% | 1383 | 1.17% | 1652 | 1.4% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| November 10 2020 | 19494 | 252703 | 625 | 56 | 3655 | 4934 |
| November 11 2020 | 19956 | 253876 | 634 | 56 | 3945 | 5027 |
| November 12 2020 | 20590 | 254788 | 649 | 57 | 4383 | 5437 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 25.3 | 5.5% | 239 | 0.4% | 307 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 106 | 76.9 | 15.8% | 692 | 0.97% | 830 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 141 | 116.6 | 23.8% | 1043 | 1% | 1312 | 1.26% |
| 30-39 | 95 | 74.6 | 15.7% | 688 | 0.9% | 857 | 1.12% |
| 40-49 | 94 | 64.9 | 14% | 615 | 0.94% | 749 | 1.14% |
| 50-59 | 66 | 49.9 | 10.7% | 469 | 0.71% | 606 | 0.92% |
| 60-69 | 52 | 28.7 | 6.7% | 293 | 0.54% | 373 | 0.68% |
| 70+ | 56 | 34.0 | 7.8% | 344 | 0.7% | 403 | 0.82% |
| All ages | 634 | 470.7 | 100% | 4383 | 0.8% | 5437 | 0.99% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| November 10 2020 | 278843 | 1939444 | 13230 | 2395 | 53473 | 72532 |
| November 11 2020 | 285891 | 1949868 | 13507 | 2457 | 57028 | 75765 |
| November 12 2020 | 293388 | 1964779 | 13771 | 2515 | 61092 | 78392 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 288 | 248.4 | 3.9% | 2384 | 0.37% | 3013 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 854 | 720.1 | 11.2% | 6835 | 0.9% | 8693 | 1.15% |
| 20-29 | 1280 | 1126.1 | 17.9% | 10916 | 1.44% | 13923 | 1.84% |
| 30-39 | 1192 | 960.6 | 15.7% | 9568 | 1.26% | 12298 | 1.62% |
| 40-49 | 1132 | 895.3 | 14.8% | 9013 | 1.29% | 11543 | 1.65% |
| 50-59 | 1115 | 942.7 | 15.4% | 9433 | 1.16% | 12273 | 1.51% |
| 60-69 | 856 | 697.6 | 11.2% | 6835 | 0.9% | 8842 | 1.17% |
| 70+ | 780 | 618.3 | 10% | 6108 | 0.95% | 7808 | 1.22% |
| All ages | 7497 | 6209.1 | 100% | 61092 | 1.05% | 78392 | 1.35% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 173.8 | 186 | 193.5 | 131.3 | 116.9 | 34.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221.8 | 112.7 | 80.1 | 44.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 210 | 77.4 | 43.4 | 44.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 139.7 | 110 | 160.7 | 140.4 | 75 | 32.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99.5 | 116.8 | 126.3 | 470.7 | 269.3 | 29.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134.6 | 114.8 | 183.9 | 6209.1 | 4385.3 | 34.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 8.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.45 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2450"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges